Slap the "Finance" Writers

If you plug in $850 to the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator, and the year 1980 and simply adjust for inflation to 2007, you'll see that in order for gold to make a new high today, it would need to exceed $2,128.09 per ounce.  Of course, there was a lot less actual demand for gold back then, and a lot less industrial and now growing medical demand for silver, too.

But, it has to be noted that gold did just fine on Friday, closing up between 14 and 16+, depending on whether you're looking at spot, futures, who's quote and so on.  Still, I do look back fondly to the archived copies of this news analysis site with pride on my summer 2005 silver decision, which I was mentioning prominently in Oct '05:

In keeping with this, we expect the market to rally today as hurricane related unemployment numbers come out. Someone has to figure a happy spin to it. Our spin? Well, silver which we bought under $7 is doing fine and gold which we bought at $265 is pressing toward $475. Our position in precious metals and cash has allowed us to sleep at night. (Usual disclaimers, I don't offer financial advice, etc. apply. Pay for professional advice. We're just a source of ideas for you to act on as you will...)"

Nevertheless,  that's an investment that has worked out just dandy.  I waded back into mid 2008 grain yesterday on the commodity side - and more on that tomorrow for Peoplenomics subscribers.

Again, this kind of development poses a real opportunity for a thinking person to spy which media are aware of the pernicious long-term impacts of inflation, which are corpgov and might be burying it - as if to pretend that the corpgov "strong dollar policy" is anything other than a lie, and my pal JB at www.fortwealth.com pointed out to a Dow Jones reporter on Friday.  "If this is a strong dollar policy, what the heck would a weak dollar policy look like?"  Touché.  Wonder if that made it past the editors?

So here's your homework Go to the Google News Search Engine and look up gold.  Here, I will do it for you.  Now, click on any of the stories about gold hitting new highs.  Then, using your browsers word search function, look for the word inflation in each story. 

It's my view that if a report deals with gold prices from 1980 (the last time it was over $800) and doesn't mention the inconvenient truth about inflation and the fraud of a 'strong dollar policy' then the reporter is either in league with the Powers That Be, or should go back to writing obits until they can at least report reasonable context.

Bored
The report that Citi's board of directors would be holding an emergency meeting this weekend helped pull the Dow to a great big 27 point bounce after a butt-whipping of more than 360 points down the day before, was less than encouraging.

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What I've been hearing and reading is that the situation for many of the financials is worse ...much, much, much, worse than is being reported, and that additional write-downs are on the horizon like a bad case of the flu making the rounds.  While we are a week or two from a news event about 'winds'  the real story about financial panic is not due till late in the month.  It's then that you'll want to be out of harms way - December and January seem like fine times to take a vacation from the paper chase, as I read the predictive linguistics.

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Depending on the spin that's put on whatever Citi comes up with over the weekend, it will likely give a good clue as to the market's early direction next week.

Claim: US First Use of Nukes

There are reports in the Middle East that it wasn't just Israeli jets that attacked a reported Syrian nuke site on September 6:  The claim is that it was US jets with a couple of tactical nuclear weapons that were used.

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How do you suppose those arms could have been used?  Do you recall it was about a week before the strike that a B-52 overflew the USA with what was reported first as five, then six, air launch cruise missiles?  And more than 70 have been disciplined in the case now.  So it does leave me wondering, hmmm...

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True, or not, the report will no doubt be used to a) further polarize Middle Eastern people (against the USA and Western interests) and then on top of it, we'll see no mention of this in CONgress because if it's not true, even holding hearings would lend credence to the claim, and if it were, CONgress would want plausible deniability.  "Oh, those folks in the WH did what?"

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Odd how the Universe works with times and rhymes: About the time that story was breaking in the ME, America was learning of the passing of Paul Tibbets, the man who flew the first A-bomb to Japan.

Deal Time

Ford and the UAW have a tentative agreement. 

Homegrown Terror

The Palo Verde nuke plant is on lockdown following the discovery of a worker with a pipe bomb.

Around Here

A little shorter report than usual today (it being Saturday and one of two days during the week that I allow myself the luxury of sleeping in till 6 AM...

The decline from the peak chart, which will be posted for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow is looking very interesting.

Compliment

I know now why I bought a Gateway computer, this time around (They've been acquired by Acer, as I understand it).  They have USA based support.  So, I think we may have nailed down the reason for my second monitor blinking out - and I'll be testing it over the weekend.

But for now, I almost had to pinch myself: a company with USA support and a system engineer named Chase up in South Dakota, who is sharp, and is even running a near-duplicate of my system to see if he can recreate the fault mode.  All I can say is "Wow!"

Friday November 2, 2007

Not Saying "Told You So" But...

Like I said a couple of weeks ago, I was willing to suspend belief and be a bull until when?

" As I explained before, I am a steadfast Bull until the first of November. From there, I expect to be changing my tune 180 degrees. "

You didn't happen to notice the date yesterday, did you?  Or the closing Dow?  And apparently a lot more "Credit Crunch" to come, say reports.

Jobs and Cuts

First the jobs report from the Department of Labor which was predictably higher than expected:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 166,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality. Manufacturing employment continued to decline, and construction employment was little changed.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons, at 7.2 million, was essentially unchanged in October, and the unemployment rate held at 4.7 percent. A year earlier, the number of unemployed persons was 6.7 million, and the jobless rate was 4.4 percent.

In October, unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (4.3 percent), adult women (4.1 percent), teenagers (15.6 percent), whites (4.2 percent), blacks (8.5 percent), and Hispanics (5.6 percent)--showed little or no change. The unemployment rate for Asians was 3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Total employment, at 146.0 million, was about unchanged in October. The employment-population ratio--62.7 percent--was little changed in October but was down from its recent peak of 63.4 percent in December. The civilian labor force, at 153.3 million in October, and the labor force participation rate, at 65.9 percent, were essentially unchanged from September.

Now, just how much of it was created by the CES Birth-Death Model, which statistically  supposes jobs created?  Try 103,000 for October.  A true skeptic would say 166 thousand new jobs, backing out 103 thousand CES Birth/Death Model estimated, leaves a real gain of 63-thousand, but any port in a storm, right?  And the 'engineers flipping burgers' report, Table A-12, category U-6 stayed steady at 8.4%.  Predictably.

And while the government is telling us on the one hand how good things are, I can help but notice that Chrysler is slicing one job in three, with another 12,000 about to get axed.  I'm not expecting this to show up as a noticeable blip on the Mass Layoffs report, though.  Statistical series which have been historically noisy have all quieted down.  All coincidental, I'm sure.

"Temporary Open Market Operations"?

Oh boy, did the linear thinkers grab me on this one:  I posted yesterday how the Fed was injecting some $41 billion into the financial system in open market operations on Thursday.  And the (quite correct, by the way) clinicians of money sent emails like this one:

"George,

You need to match repos accepted versus repos maturing to get the actual picture.

Accepted:

$12 billion in 1 days $21 billion in 7 days $8 billion in 14 days

Total $41 billion accepted

Maturing/Expiring:

$5.5 billion in 1 days $12 billion in 2 days $19 billion in 7 days $6 billion in 14 days

Total $41.5 billion maturing.

That is a net drain of $0.5 billion. Essentially flat. Basically the Fed and primary broker dealers keep the balls in the air."

OK, that's absolutely true, but you're not getting my main point.  It's better made by Mover Mike who is also asking the same kind of question I'm trying to get to:  "Are some TOMO's Now POMO's?"  In other words, have we past the point where temporary open market operations are a thing of the past and because of the fragility of things, they are on the way to becoming permanent open market operations (POMO's)? 

That's the point.  If the answer to that is "Well, maybe..." then we essentially have the banksters bailing banksters rather than letting the free market (which you'll vaguely recall was once a republicorp mantra, but I don't hear so much about it now that the financial sector is getting its ass spanked for predatory lending and paper hyping) deal out justice of a financial type.

In the name of "financial stability" corpgov has eliminated risk!  "Bust the bank?  Oh, no you don't.  Here, take this bailout money and don't rock the boat..."  Screw the someday retiring Boomers, who were thinking their hard saved Dollars would hold their value.  We're not in that business, are we?  Dollar under 0.69?  Too bad.  We're going to have economic stability if it kills us.  Which, I'd wryly note, it's well on its way to doing.

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Nothing would surprise me less than a little more TOMO/POMO action today and a bounce-back rally into the weekend.  But as I am jotting things down this morning, the rest of the world seems little-fooled and the dollar is buying about 0.69 Euro, and gold is still over $792 on the spot market and oil...well, let's just say my gas price predictions of higher prices next weekend compared to this are looking like a fair gamble nationally.

Predictive Linguistics Hit: Diaspora Continues

Flood, Drought, Walking Shoes

Hmmm...let me think:  What is the relative importance of flooding, drought, and people moving all over the place (Diaspora), compared to printing ink on paper and making a life of that? Not to mention building a whole currency around it and expecting the rest of the world not to wise up.

It seems to me (not to mention the time monks, Cliff and Igor, who run the time machine/predictive linguistics operation) that getting a chance to see a little ways into the future (for entertainment value only, of course) may outweigh the quest for paper.  After all, you can't eat paper, and can't drink it, so at some macro level, fundamental analysis is bound to over-power the noise-trading schemes of the quants and the corpgov play along crowd.

As an illustration of how Terra Intrudes and Ma Nature spanks, let's consider the case of  Orme Tennessee where the water has now run out due to the Southeast Drought, which seems likely, as we get into the undeniable part of the Greater Depression/Second Great Depression, destined to play out as the modern analog of the Dust Bowl of the 1930's.  Except, for lack of water, we will likely see not only farms abandoned, but things like manufacturing, homes, and so forth. 

I've been watching the weather forecasts for Atlanta, and I'm still not seeing any rain in the forecast through next week.

Here's actionable point #1 for today's report:  If you have relatives in the Desert Southeast, have you got plans to put them up at your place?  Find them a job?  Build a spare bedroom for them?  Figured out some way to store their personal goods that they'll lug along when they move in with you?

The Diaspora which linguistically for months has been seen as coming to a planet near you (*look at your feet for hints which planet we be speaking of located) seems likely to impact huge numbers of people.  How big is huge?  How many people are in the Desert Southeast, and now multiply that times 3 and you might get a handle on it.

I'm bringing this up now because if you have relatives in the SE, you might want to have a serious chat with them about what we all hope will only be contingency plans.  If you live in Atlanta, and don't have your own well, you might be thinking along those lines, too.  What will happen to home values in the drought area if it continues for months?  What about business operations? 

Linguistically for better than a year, the web bot runs have been talking about a curious 'banding' of the weather.  It started off with more or less vertical bands, which have now twisted clockwise  30-40 degrees, and you can see the bands over the Rockies and in the Southeast.  If the bands don't break down soon, the Diaspora which has been mentioned prominently for months could show up in your driveway in the Midwest or the Northeast, arriving from Drought Land.

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To illustrate how Diaspora works, and ignoring the recent case of the L.A. fires, where we had plenty of people on walk-about because of the fires, let's consider what is going on in Mexico where more than 700,000 people are presently dislocated because of the flip side of the sudden global climate change, the flooding in Mexico's southern state of Tabasco.

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Diaspora is one of those macro-trends that people don't think about - it's hard to wrap youir head around something like this.  It's a lot easier to sit back and 'plink' at headlines like the 3-hours of water story out of Tennessee, but that kind of viewing of news leaves you in a  reactive rather than anticipatory mode.    The name of the game is to get ahead of events, and be ahead of the crowd on such matters.  Even if you don't make a pile of money on it, the idea is self, then capital, preservation.  And you know that lawn watering in a drought area can lead to murder, as happened in Australia?

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You're welcome to remain skeptical, but just for the heck of it, let's see if our 'wind event/unusual winds" shows up around the 18-22nd of this month, and if Atlantis doesn't have problems over the North Atlantic next month.

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If I were looking for the worst possible piece of "investment paper" I would have to say it would be a bundle of subprime paper from the Desert Southeast.

Oh, and think about where to park those kin from Atlanta, just in case. Hope the kids are well-mannered. 

Fires Return?

Wind warnings are up today in California.

Writer's Strike

Serious times as the Writers are set to announce today when their strike will begin in Hollywood.

Why the production companies haven't set up a web site to gather writing is beyond me. Here, buy some scripting software and become and maybe you could find temp work.

Huge Coke Bust

$400-million worth in Manzanillo Mexico. 23.5 tons of party dust.

The Runs

Commedian Stephen Colbert has been told he can't be on the ballot in South Carolina because it would distract from the serious business of picking a President.  I don't recall the word serious in the Constitution...drought grouches.

Arm Them Illegals

The PC folks in NY who are trying to give illegals drivers licenses could actually be paving the way for illegals to arm themselves says an expert.  All part of the corpgov drive to a North American Union, of course. 

I don't know about you, but I'll have a hard (impossible?) time accepting any edicts if they come from a super-government not elected under and subject to the US Constitution.  Not EU here, thanks.  The crashing/trashing of the dollar, of course is paving the way, too...

Around Here

I will be posting a free Saturday report tomorrow.  Just something tells me I should.

Tons of projects going on around the ranch.  Putting up a roof over part of the north deck, on the gamble that the rains will return.  E is still trying to chase down the heat-seeking mouse in the kitchen.  A whole bunch of different traps in use, all without success so far.  Trying sticky traps now.

In between, trying to catch up on accounting; I want to be ready early for tax season this year.

Thursday November 1, 2007

Update: Ben & the Rescue Printers

From the NY Fed

Temporary OMO: Fed adds $12.00 billion with overnight RP

Temporary OMO: Fed adds $21.00 billion with 7 days RP

(earlier today)

Temporary OMO: Fed adds $8.00 billion with 14 day RP

Can they hold it?  Yes...this time.  Gotta help the bankers out...

And You Thought Halloween Was Scary

In March of 2006, based on the predictive linguistics work of Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com, I started keeping a semi-daily chart of how often the term "shortage" was popping up in Google's news search engine.  I did this cause I'd received some early reports that certain calibers of ammunition were in short supply (including my favorite plinking rounds, the 7.62 X 39 eaten by my coyote gun, an old SKS). 

Over the intervening months, I've noticed a lot of changes going on - little things here and there, but so have readers.  The emails have mentioned things like "I can't seem to find things that used to be available at X-Mart - seems like the aisles are wider and the selection is a little less deep" - that kind of thing.  Of course, the reduction in availability of ammunition has been swirling around the sports community, too.  No oat meal here, no motor oil there.  Just little stuff, but rare in earlier times.  Even Cliff at HPH remarked that he couldn't get some parts for his survikval boat (coming: global coastal event).  "We used to be able to get all kinds of marine hardware things here (in his Northwest seaport town).  But now, there's almost no inventory and darn little variety in the big box stores..."  Yup, folks notice.

The reason this is so interesting is that the predictive linguistics keep referring to 'encounters with scarcity' and 'restrictions on travel' - like the increased security at the nation's airports, the press by corpgov for a Real ID program, and all the rest isn't chilling enough.  The reason it's so interesting is that we have something called 'the George Postulate' - which says the more lead time we get on an event from the predictive analysis of language shift, the more impacting it will be in the psyche of the nation/world.  The 'shortage meme' (thought disease/virus) is in the preconscious stage now, but I expect this winter it will become bespoke by LameStreamMedia.  Maybe in an odd way: Bad Christmas; can get the toy of the year, that sort of thing. 

A couple of examples here: The terms "dollar death", "near death experience of the dollar" and others that go to a currency decline have been kicking around model space for two or three years now.  This would contrast with "fires on the rooftops, nights in the woods" (which seem to have gone toward the recent California fires) which although a big image burned into the public/mass consciousness mind, was only in modelspace for 6-8 months.

It's with this in mind that the slow-to-materialize shifts are the ones that hold my attention.  And, gotta tell you, the "Shortage Tracking Chart" sure has my attention today:

I'd be the first to admit that this is not "hard science" in that there are plenty of reasons why the term "shortage" could be popping up more in Google's engine now: Might be more news sites are being indexed, or it could be something as simple as a change in how their cache is swapped deep in the SQL somewhere. 

On the other hand, I've also been keeping an informal eye on the search term UFO (which has been running from 500-1,400 hits per day in this period) because I would expect if a lot more sites were being indexed, or if the caching strategy has changed in a big way, a term like UFO would  show a similar kind of increase, more than doubling from it's initial state.  It hasn't.

You can do the search yourself any time.   Stories where shortages come to the fore include the reports today of long lines at the gas pumps in China - going to the idea of fuel shortages there. 

This all goes to a theme I touched on during my chat with Steve Quayle last night on his radio show:  When complex systems form in a chaotic environment, as corporate globalism crawled out of a globally noisy swamp of business over the 1960's into 1980's, it was fed by lots of small companies trying to serve the needs of big ones.  however, over time, as the marginally profitable companies fell away, or changed their focus to other customers, we have seen some of the initial  resilience of the complex global system begin to 'stiffen'.  As we move into the future, I expect that the initial flexibility of corporate globalism will calcify further as companies place more restrictions on their suppliers, such as ISO 900X requirements and such, to the point where what had been a 'flexible' marketplace' will become a universe of new 'single source' providers. 

No, I'm not down on ISO standards.  Don't misunderstand that: They're good and the ideas of having complete documentation of change orders, traceability of materials and such, makes a lot of sense, especially because as corporate globalism has grown, so has the propensity to litigate at the drop of a hat. 

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Sidebar: Because the legal profession is such a large employer, why doesn't the Department of Labor or some other branch of official numberness publish a monthly record of how many lawsuits are filed in the USA?  I'd suggest that the health of lawyering is at least as important in this service-economy-on-steroids economy as (don't be offended here) manufacturing.  Every legal case filed, when you think about it, employs at least six people: Plaintiff and Defense attorneys, at least a handful of  paralegals, process servers, court clerks, judges, judge's staffs, etc. Why aren't economists demanding a worthy tracking of this kind of 'work' and 'output'?

Just like durable and non-durable goods, why not have criminal cases +civil case +jail terms issued so we can get a meaningful grip on things? Or, is our litigiousness something we're in denial about?  Back on point:

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Follow the logic here: As the flexibility of the complex system evaporates, the occurrence of shortages would logically increase.  Without multiple sources, the supply chain becomes brittle, and the first sign of that would be what?  How about shortages?

If this little 'back of the cocktail napkin' idea proves out, the whole planet is in for something scarier than Halloween.  "Encounters with Scarcity" and more 'restrictions on travel."

Ask the folks in China's gas lines.  How's China coping?  No rationing (yet) but they are trying to ration by price, raising prices 10%. 

Gas Prices Up In One Week

Not predictive linguistics, this is just common sense applied: I'm gong out on a limb here and will suggest that gasoline prices will be at least a nickel a gallon higher one week from Saturday than they are this weekend, thanks to the elections next Tuesday.  And how cozy is the relationship between big companies and CONgressional wannbe's?  Let's see what pops out of this morning's headlines....ah....

A recent Eric Rosenberg story, writing for Heart Papers, reveals how much money is sloshing around for Congressional hopefuls:

"One way that government contractors seek influence is by making political contributions through a political action committee, or PAC. A PAC is an organization formed by a company or special-interest group to raise funds for candidates. Company employees contribute to the PAC, which then distributes money to election campaigns.

The EADS-Northrop team has the edge in political giving in the 2008 election cycle, giving a combined $744,600 so far.

The PAC administered by the U.S.-based unit of Airbus parent EADS -- called the Americans for Competition in Aerospace PAC -- has provided lawmakers $75,600 toward their 2008 election efforts, far outpacing the $53,900 that the EADS PAC gave lawmakers in the 2006 election cycle, the year the political action committee was created.

Northrop Grumman's PAC has given $669,000 so far toward 2008 congressional elections and is on target to meet or exceed previous spending levels. In the 2006 congressional elections, it provided candidates with $1.4 million; in 2004, it gave $1.6 million, and in 2002, $830,250".

That should give you a good idea of what's at stake in next week's (Nov. 6) elections is in USA Today.  Who was it said "We have the best government money can buy?"

Now, how do I get to gasoline prices from this? You don't really think the energy folks would raise prices until after the election, do you? 

As oil pulls back a bit from near $100 a barrel, the price increases are coming, sure as winter, and then spring.  I'll be loading up on farm diesel this weekend.  The price pressure in the supply chain is, I'm afraid, only held in check till next polls close next Tuesday.  As soon as we can't do anything (like pull a voting lever), up they'll go and the corpgov agenda is reset for another election cycle. We'll see, huh?

Filling up Tuesday is a reasonable bet.  Besides, like Pappy used to say "Doesn't cost any more to drive with a full tank..."

Battening Bahamas

Soon come de wind, mon. I wonder if there has been a tropical storm named Noel before?  Or is this (Quick, grab the air sick bag! George is going into Stand Up Economics Mode) the First Noel?

Speaking of the Writer's Strike

The studios have broken off talks with no contract.  Say, how about a pay-per-laugh?  And can we move the level of the humor up a notch, too?

Soooo Confused

The headline "Japan Ends Naval Mission in Afghanistan" has me scratching my head.  How long did it take them to figure out that Afghanistan doesn't have an ocean coast?  Oh, offshore support for our military...well, OK then... Heck, I though navel missions went to Hooters - WTF do I know.

Clean Thoughts, Dirty Paper

Saying things like "Sanitation [is] an important indicator of development" the World Toilet Summit is underway in New Delhi.  My contributed paper "Paper and Energy Savings Possible from Global Mass Constipation" didn't make it into the poster session...I was feeling flush with ideas at the time...

The Runs

Political headline of the day: "Clinton's rivasls see an opening."  I won't touch that one...

Drowning in Controversy

But he's not really drowning - just thinks that:  Michael Mukasey's bid for Attorney General under fire for not renouncing waterboarding - where victims believe they are drowning.  It's only torture if other countries/non-state actors do it, right?

You want torture that would be legal?  How about giving suspected toerrorists support payments?

State of Marketing

I turn to West Virginia this morning and see that the state is going back to "Wild, Wonderful" instate of "Open for Business." 

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Again, my marketing expertise has been slammed.  My proposed slogan was a lot more honest: "It's all related."  The alternative, "Stripped [mined]  and ready" didn't make it either.

Garbage Day

This is when I take all the trash out to be picked up by the G-Man crew.  Perhaps it explains my odd sense of humor (is that what you call it??) today.  The real laughs will be served up tomorrow (Universe cooperating) when the next Unemployment Report comes out.

Wednesday October 31, 2007

OK, Now What?

About as surprising as the sun coming up, the Fed lowered rates a 1uarter point today.  Here's the official statement:

"For immediate release The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.

Economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance. However, the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction. Today’s action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and promote moderate growth over time.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but recent increases in energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

The Committee judges that, after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Thomas M. Hoenig, who preferred no change in the federal funds rate at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 5 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and San Francisco. "

My expectation?  This means more dollar pumping with low rates, so witrh the printing presses cranked up, I'm expecting $100 Oil, $800-900 gold and $15-18 silver in the near future.  But hey!  It's all good.  Until Wall Street figures it out.

Marking Time: Fed Day

As usual, when the Fed decision comes out this afternoon (my prediction: down 1/4/25 basis points, since anything else would upset the apple cart which is madly careening toward a cliff anyway, but why not try?) I will post the decision here.  With the usual caveats that I'm not on a conference call, the power stays on, and so forth.

The stock futures are up a bit this morning, after the Dow dropped 77.8 on Tuesday, but all in all, it will be a typical 'Fed Day.'  I think it was Rick Ackerman who observed a long while back that when the Fed decision comes out, you will see an initial thrust in the direction that the market will take after the decision, then it will pull back (why the commercials get on board) and then off the market goes, up or down, depending on the decision.  Which, as I say, is almost a foregone conclusion.

Behind it all is the dollar, which is very close to 0.690 Euro this morning (good for gold and silver, though) as headlines like "Dollar hits fresh lows against euro, sterling" pop up.  Look surprised.

Shaken - and Stirred

There was a 5.6 earthquake in San Jose about 8 PM local time last night.  Not the Big One, but scientists don't rule out more.  Lots of folks thinking it was really bigger than reported, but you got to go with the numbers on this, especially when they are close to the overseas reports.

However, that I think does matter is that the San Jose quake happened a mere 26 minutes from a 7.2 shaker off on the other side of the Pacific plate in the northern Mariana Islands.

How Much for Spying?

So, how much are the men from Uncle (Sam) spending on their spy vs. spy activities?  $43.5 billion a year, not including the military says the NYT (and I'd venture not counting the black budget stuff, either).

How big is $43.5 billion?  Well, to put it in perspective Disney has annual revenues of $35.77 billion, so spying is more than that.  But, it's less than the $54.07 billion in Microsoft revenues for the most recent 12 months.  If you generalize:  the publicly admitted spy budget is between Disney and Microsoft, you'd have a good vista on what the characters are spending.

Comet Comment

A couple of things to consider as Comet Holmes continues to grab headlines.  One is a report by a couple of University of Oregon experts suggesting that comets may be one of the drivers of periodic extinctions here on rock three.  No need for trading curbs if a comet hits, eh?

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With the writers strike talk in Tinsel Town, and while celebrating the predictive linguistics hit on "energies from space" about now (e.g. the comet and more to come), chief time monk Cliff and sidekick Igor at www.halfpasthuman.com have been kicking around a plot line for what seems like it would be a great sci-fi movie...

"Now nearly 2million times brighter than only 5 days ago? And very strangely spherical with no tail formation?

well, postulated years ago.. the answer to the question of

"What would an interstellar spaceship look like as it began to slow down as it entered our space? "

hmmmm.. a lot like a continuously brightening, spherical, hard centered, small planet......

this from a discussion between Heinlein, nasa, and Asimov in the late fifties...as part of the 'cadet' program of discussions. Was this named for 'space cadet Corbet'?

so...if the comet keeps brightening, no tail. and seemingly getting MUCH larger, THEN suddenly 'winks' out....it is an interstellar ship....

probably of mind warping size.

Cool plot, huh?  Lots of people are looking up at it with various thoughts tumbling around...plenty of researching and blogging about.  Speaking of strange things in the sky...

The Kucinich UFO

Curious story emerging now (linguistically, UFO reports/language/media should be increasing, and sure enough...) democratic presidential hopeful Dennis Kucinich reportedly has seen a UFO.

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Also on the subject of 'the runs' that web site I mentioned yesterday seems to have found another Hillary picture to plaster in front of people this morning.

I know this won't counter the corpgov Hil hype, but Ron Paul was on Jay Leno last night and it's on YouTube.  Snips: "Our greatest threat is to our civil liberties here at home..."  "The message of Liberty is what America is all about..."

As long as we're on it some Ron Paul supporters have edited a classic George Carlin wrap into a video, but this contains some harsh language and you won't want the sound up too loud if you're listening at work or around the kids...

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Speaking of media, I'll be on Steve Quayle's show tonight.

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Far be it for me to tell you how to manage your sensory inputs, but daily repetition of the same face, day after day, is a lot like listening to emotive music:  Does some subliminal programming.  Frankly, except for a few charts, and music (largely instrumental) I find myself lately trying to manage down my visual inputs so that the objective mind doesn't get swamped. 

Arson Charges?

So, if a kid under 13 really did start one of the California fires that destroyed 63 buildings, do you charge him with arson?  Authorities ponder, but I think it's a foregone conclusion they will have to.

Labor Strikers Freed

I mentioned last week about the construction strike in Dubai.  More than 4,000 arrested according to reports, but now  most of them have been released.

Damn Dam

Here's an interesting story:  There's a key dam in Iraq which the US figures is ready to burst about any old time.  If it does, the Independent headlines that this "Iraqi dam burst would drown 500,000 people.  The Iraqi government doesn't seem concerned about it, though.

A Glaring Omission

I forgot to post the Mass Layoff report when it came out last week!.  Here's the chart:

Buoying it all: The service economy.  Taking it in the short?  Manufacturing:

"The manufacturing sector accounted for 34 percent of all mass layoff events and 44 percent of all related initial claims filed in September; a year earlier, manufacturing made up 34 percent of events and 45 percent of initial claims. In September 2007, the number of manufacturing claimants was highest in transportation equipment manufacturing (7,759, largely in motor vehicle power train components manufacturing, motor vehicle seating and interior trim manufacturing, and all other motor vehicle parts manufacturing), followed by machinery manufacturing (3,021) and electrical equipment and appliance manufacturing (2,881)."

Yep, that noisy data has really gotten predictable, huh?  Coincidence, I'm sure.

Tuesday October 30, 2007

Fed Watch: The Beat Down

Watching the futures this morning, I'm seeing what can only be described as a predictable beat down of a few commodities and the precious metals as we away the Fed decision tomorrow.  I'm not the only one expecting a lower open and sideways action.

What do I think Bernanke, et all will do?  I don't see that as a serious question: They almost have to drop a quarter point because if they more or less, the whole economic house of cards could come tumbling down on them.  If they hold the rates where they are, the housing refi victims get screwed (bad for the politicos in the November elections) and if they lower a full half, that might be good for the housing folks, but the run on the US dollar will become a stampede instead of an orderly decline to new lows.

What's a Ben to do?  What's expected, of course. 

As a result though, and in the very short term, oil and the metals are down and the dollar is swinging between 0.6935 Euro and 0.6950 Euros - a range that won't like see much change, although if I were putting odds on it, a slightly stronger dollar could happen.

Tomorrow night, Steve Quayle has asked me to be on his radio program to talk about the Fed decision - no problem there. If the Fed does something other than a quarter, it could be more like a post mortem on the economic system. 

I keep getting this nap of the neck twitch that something unexpected could happen.  Not sure if it's going to be the accounting standards that will force banks to reveal what assets are in what risk tier, or whether it will be something out of the Middle East, but there's just a sense that under the surface, things are becoming quite a bit more desperate in bankster circles than are being let on to the people.

The Price of Oil

Who ever thought we would see a headline  to the idea that oil is down to the $92 range?  Or, that gold is nearly $800? Or, that Silver is well over $14?

The "Personal Carry Trade"

I was talking to Cliff at www.halfpasthuman.com yesterday and he along with sidekick Igor have spotted something very curious coming in from the present data streams (collecting info for the ALTA 0708 predictive linguistic report which is now underway). 

"It's getting to where a regular human can almost do an airline carry trade..." he let on.  "What's that?" I quickly asked, sensing a new way to make money.

"Looks like there's as much as a $45 differential between the price of a US Gold Eagle in the USA with Europe being higher.  Which means that if you could find enough gold coins in the USA, and if you could get it out of the country and over to Europe, you might be able to make about $45 a coin.  Do that with a thousand coins, or so, and you'd definitely pay for the trip."
 

"Of course that would weigh a lot, and then there's the matter of TSA and so forth" he quickly added.  But yeah, and interesting concept: The Personal Carry Trade. ASnd maybe with less than $10,000 of "face value" to keep the Feds happy.

Another catch?  When I came back from Seattle to Tyler, TX (airline code TYR) my suit bag went to Syracuse (airline code CYR).  So I  don't think I would trust an airline with $45,000 in checked gold.  Think you could get it past the X-ray machines?

Seems to me there's some kind of regulation on taking more than $10,000 our of the country, which brings me to the face value issue:  Since the face value of the coin is $50 dollars, seems to me that you really might be able to take 199 coins out of the country legally. If you could score a $45 differential in Europe (suggested by the data, but you're on your own on this one) then with a max legal shipment you could get as much as $8,955 in gains.

Further, there's some precedence for the idea that if the government puts $50 on the face of a coin, that is all they can ever value the coin at.  As an example of this, there was a recent Las Vegas case where a man used gold coins to pay people - and because he claimed the gold was worth exactly what the government said it was worth ($50 face value for the gold Eagle, for example, rather than the 'street price' of $830) he had committed no foul of IRS regs.

The best thought out plans of mice and time monks though:  Cliff added the caveat 'If you could get the gold" - and deliveries I hear are not overnight in many cases.  Then there's the scene at the X-ray machines, the risk of TSA confiscation anyway. and then security when you get across the pond.  Still, an interesting concept to ponder over coffee, isn't it: The Personal Carry Trade.

Now, let me think: Would I risk $45,000 for a job that paid $80 an hour to ride airplanes around?

The Runs

Look quick! This is the first morning in a long while I've checked the Drudge Report and not seen a picture or big story about Hillary you know who.  Maybe it's just me.  Or maybe not: I forgot to mention a week or so back the Slate article "The New Clinton Propaganda Machine" but you might find it still worthy of a read.  And, the day is young, and then there's tomorrow.

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Op-Ed pages continue to note that Democrats like Mike Gravel are being buried by the mainstream/LameStreamMedia as is Ron Paul, although I noted many more Ron Paul signs in the Northwest than anyone else.  Must be some hope left, huh?

Blow

Tropical Storm Noel is whacking the Bahamas pretty good.  Latest reports indicate 13 dead in the Dominican Republic.  Latest storm track info is here.  I wonder how Grand Turk fared?

Blackwater's Pass

The State Department has offered immunity to Blackwater security guards from prosecution for the shooting of 17 Iraqi civilians.  If they didn't do anything wrong, why the need for the free pass? Oil-thirsty corpgov looking out for its own private army, maybe?

"Invade Egypt!!!"

OK, so you won't hear that kind of talk coming from Vice President Oil's office, but think about this:  Egypt has decided to build nuclear power plants to meet its growing energy needs.  Why aren't we invading?

Let me think, for a minute.  What's the difference between Muslim Egypt going into the nuclear development business and  Muslim Iran?

A check of the CIA World Fact Book might offer a hint:

Iraq holds 112,5 billion barrels of oil

Iran holds an even juicier 138.4 billion barrels

Egypt has a scanty 3.8 billion of reserves.

So, why invade Egypt?  No oil, so what's the point...let 'em have their nukes.

Thought Control, Redux

NT Times tasking the Bush administration for muzzling climate science.  Oh, and to protect you from hearing the whole story, the WH press minions watered down testimony from the CDC Director.

Well as Dylan & Hendrix sang  in "All Along the Watchtower" "There are many here among us Who feel that life is but a joke but uh But you and I we've been through that And this is not our fate So let us not talk falsely now The hours getting late."  Later than the PTB think, say the time monks. 

Me?  I didn't know Pat Boone did a cover of All Along the Watchtower.  That's one I gotta hear before I die.  That & Tiny Tim's version..yeah, that would put a capper on life, wouldn't it?

Around Here: Managing the Manager

What do I do for a living?  I mean sides write Peoplenomics?  Mainly, sales, marketing, and strategic plan consulting.  But, you know where I am sometimes like the cobbler who's kids go barefoot?  Applying my own good advice and counsel to my own situation.  Sometimes even the best manager needs to sit back with a cup of coffee and ask "Is it me or X that needs to change?"

I've been doing some of that in the past 24-hours, since the answers to the Saturday question started coming in and a friend/subscriber started to ask my why Urban is not utilizing the most popular social networks to grow traffic.  "Why aren't you doing StumbledUpon or Digg?" he wondered.  That, coupled with a time log, shows that I spend a fair amount of time each week working on subscriber issues; changing email addresses, sending out reminders, and what have you.

If I were to retain "George the consultant" instead of looking at things as "George the econ wag".. I would have to give myself a harsh talking to and write a short strategic plan:

• UrbanSurvival should use the evolving social networks more effectively.  No mind that you (as a reader) would have to either click on an RSS feed, or click a link to the daily page from the UrbanSurvival home page each day.  [I've stubbornly declined to change the daily report from its present "week.htm" address because it has been wonderfully convenient, or so lots of readers tell me - the page is always the same place, every day.]  Never mind that the 'fixed address' approach means that the site is not friendly to content-specific communities of the  RSS/Technorati/Digg/StumbledUpon genre and lots of other ways to get site content out and about.  So, it goes on my to-do list for change.  Sorry if it means a click a day to get to the current page.  On my end it means doing the RSS feed again - which has been an on again/off again this so far, as its value proved fairly minimal due to the target URL is static.  If you're a whiz on such, advice is welcome.

• Peoplenomics needs to automate Customer Service. The second point is that I have always (until now) set up subscribers manually.  When someone subscribes, I get an email, and then log into the serve via secure logon, and write the access table myself.  That way, there's less question about security and so forth,  plus as a bonus, I get to assign the user's password.  This is always the user's email address ( a second time: the email once for the username and and then a second time as their password) because I don't want people using the same password for their Peoplenomics account as they do at their bank.  Folks might be tempted to do that, but I don't ever want custody of anyone's personal information.  That way, there's never any question about integrity.  But again,  George the Consultant would say "Use the available automation, you damn fool!" and "George the econ wag" would have to agree.

Getting these things fixed, plus keeping the Saturday reports, but making them available for subscribers only (it's how the voting from yesterday is going), are the next three site-related items going on my Big To-Do list.  If I were guessing, I would expect subscriber-only access to Saturday starting this weekend, the change in subscriber access processing to be implemented around the first of December, and the unique daily address to come about maybe by January 1st.

Who knows?  Maybe by that time, my investment in Microsoft's Expression Web will be redeemed with a workable update/service pack and the daily postings made a little easier. For now, I like FP2003 - used to it and all.  And on any of this getting easier?  I'm not holding my breath.

Monday October 29, 2007

Idiots in the Newsroom

I don't know whether it's malfeasance, misfeasance, incompetence, stupidity, ignorance, arrogance, or plain agenda running, but in my view of things the BIGGEST story - maybe even bigger than the Housing Bubble Shenanigans (including liar's paper and bankster bailing) - has to be the truth of inflation which is leaking out all over the place and yet,  in spite of the obviousness of it all, is being buried by LameStreamMedia - the charitable name of the corpgov financial press.

Some numbers that make my point:

• First up: Gold, which advanced more than $16 on Friday and was up today to within $4.50 of the $800 mark today, is getting a sound Monday morning beat down by TPTB.  Ramp the buck and try to hold back gold's advance. While we are nearly certain to get a resurgence of deflationary pressures, we won't likely get that until the current wild money-creation comes to an end.  In case you have forgotten, money is 'created' any time one party extends credit to another.  That's spreading faster than a California wild fire.

• Second point: Silver has popped over $14.50 - prompting the "Got Gold Report" to headline "Gold, Silver Bears Nervous" - and it was only a couple of years ago (30 months back if I recall right) that I was telling you about buying silver at under $7 an ounce and saying I was doing it because at some point, the power of inflation would come roaring back, only to be officially denied. 

• The purchasing power of the dollar continues to sink and this morning dropped to where it would buy less than 7-10th's of a Euro.  Around 0.6925 Euro to be a little more precise.  It now takes just under5 $1.45 to buy a single Euro that was nearly at parity with the US dollar when the stock market hit its all time highs on a purchasing power basis in 2000.

• Oil has continued to climb as well, and the rarified airs above $93 posted in overnight trading will soon enough be working their way towards the gas pumps, although (coincidentally I'm sure) only a few days after the November elections this year.  Why do you think the republicorp is so happy about their prospect this year?    I have to remind you that it was Republican Abe Lincoln is the fellow who said "You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool; all of the people all the time"  Since the party's takeover by corporate donors, I don't hear the democorps making much noise about this, but then again, they get their checks from the same string-pullers.

You're certainly welcome to believe whatever inflation numbers you want, but please consider that the government has a vested interest in reporting the tamest inflation they can sell/justify (using whatever hedonics are necessary) because by doing so they not only cap the increases being paid to fixed income/social security recipients/retired military, but they set at unrealistic levels the wage adjustments for federal workers and the active duty military - which is a big chunk of the US economy.

But, leaking out of the fine print in the boardroom is something a little closer to the truth about inflation.  Take the report this morning the FedEx is about to raise its prices about 7 percent in January, and this is on top of a 5 percent increase last year.  Add up 5% and 7% and you get 12%, which means average inflation is probably closer to 6% per year than the area near 4% we're being asked to believe.  You choose what you will, I'll just keep looking at the numbers and reporting them here.

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I don't mean to start off Monday with a rant about my once newsroom colleagues having their heads so far into press release, rip & read genre of "news" that they can't think or write their way out of a paper bag, but this is a HUGE story with multiple components to it, and it's becoming more likely every day that the predictive linguistics about the coming 'near death experience' of the dollar will end with a new currency and huge social change.

OK, so it's a little more complicated than Boston Sweeps Series.   It's more complex than the Gap sweatshop headline. And it's got more moving parts to it than the 24 people killed in the latest Iraq bombing.

It's a complex story, one that requires marrying the disparate elements of precious metals, Peak Oil (which is now past), the White House occupant threatening World War III over oil interests, and real life experience of inflation suffered by serious and damn well-run companies like Fed Ex. Oh, and let's not forget that nearly one-third of Mexico is in the US illegally, too.

To be sure, there are a few reporters/anchors who understand the gravity of the moment.  But take away the few deep-thinkers (like Lou Dobbs, Jerome Corsi,  and John Crudele plus a few others) and who remains?  Here's a hint: The idiots in the newsroom.

Like Baseball with Inflation
With lots of sheep hypnotized into believing that sports is somehow more important and just fun, I should probably do 30-seconds of sports writing, just to make folks comfortable.  Pretend for a moment that we're handing out strikes, adjusted for inflation since 1979.  It would go something like this:

• Strike one: Afghanistan's president says the US should call off air strikes in his country - too much collateral damage among civilians.  Not to mention that this is just the kind of damage that causes guerilla movements to gain strength.

• Strike two: Air France

• Strike three: Fiat tomorrow.

• Strike four: Construction workers in Dubai

• Strike five: Turkey warns of strike against Iraq

• Strike six: Hollywood writers may walk this week. (They have writers for the crap on TV??? 'Mazing...)

• Strike seven:  Airbus workers may strike over sale of a business unit

• Strike eight: Auto-rickshaw strike in India - and you thought your commute was bad.

There: eight strikes.  That's baseball's three "normal" strikes -  plus inflation from 1979 to now:  By the government's own figures, what cost  three dollars in 1979 costs $8.52 today (ignoring inflation since January of this year, BTW).  Use the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator yourself.

Theft of Free Speech?

A number of readers have written in to ask if I have read HR 1955, which as I noted in Saturday's report, was rammed through the House while California was smoking.  A very good report on the goings on is in Devvy Kidd's column this morning over at News With Views.

After a bit of mulling on Sunday, I asked a friend, who's a college criminal justice prof "Just how serious a threat is this one?"

"George,

Very busy right now but I gave the bill a cursory read. I wouldn’t panic yet; just another damn commission that might or might not try to stomp the First Amendment. Given that the dems have appointments to the commission, I would expect that any radical proposals for restricting the First Amendment would be well aired and fodder for the election campaign. Primary focus seems to be carrots rather than sticks. I worry more about another WTC type attack would lead to the willing discard of civil liberties by the U.S. population. This bill seems, to me, to be a low priority threat. I’m more annoyed by the creation of yet another expensive bureaucracy than I am worried about the specific harm it might do.

I had my only course in constitutional law at the end of the 1960s. The clearest lesson I took from it is that civil rights ebb and flow: in crisis times, they recede; in stable times they return. Sometimes the specific composition of the S.Ct. (e.g. the Warren court in the Eisenhower era) overrides public concerns. Given that we are likely to enter an era of resource wars with a conservative S.Ct., I’m expecting a contraction of rights no matter who is in power. About the only thing that might save our civil rights, especially freedom of speech, is a crash (Manhattan Project type) program to reduce reliance on foreign energy and other critical commodities.

In short, HR 1955 is very low on my worry list! "

Yeah, makes sense.  Bigger threats are out there, but still - it reads like it is another attempt to ban criticism of government and set the stage for imposition of thought control and licensing of content on the internet.

Plame Speaking

Outed spy Valerie Plame continues to speak out about how the WH buried her case.

Will It Bring Rain?

The headline this morning is that "Tropical Storm Noel closes in on Haiti, expected to hit Cuba next".  But, as I read this, the real question is whether it will bring any rainfall to the Desert Southeast.  I sure don't see anything in the Atlanta forecast that looks like rain...

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Outside of America's corporate dominated mediasphere there's very good reporting in the foreign press - and I'd draw your attention to a piece in the Star of Malaysia this morning: "The era of cheap food is over".  It's the kind of connect-the-dots that I try to present around here.

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Linguistically, we're supposed to see continued strength in grains - and the Jamaica Observer is reporting that "Corn prices soar, rice swells as flour holds tight!"

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Our mantra continues to be "Buy things not paper.

Outlook

Consumer confidence numbers due out tomorrow,  GDP Wednesday, Personal Income and auto sales Thursday,  Unemployment rate and Factory orders due Friday.  That, plus a whole slug of earnings, and this morning's upside bias...seems like just another week to watch from the sidelines.  Keep an eye out for exogenous events.  Especially something like unusual winds a week or so prior to Thanksgiving (tornados out of season?) says the linguistics team.

Do We Need Saturday?

I am considering stopping the publication of a free Saturday edition for non-subscribers and adding additional Sunday depth for subscribers to my Peoplenomics.com web site.  Before making the change, comments are welcome.  Basically it boils down to "Can you live with Urban being updated only 5-days a week for non-subscribers?  Several folks/friends have told me "You give away too much for free": - and while that may be true, and yeah, I've done that a lot in my life, I also want to make sure that subscribers get maximum value...Plus, I've got tons of work to get done in the shop and around the ranch.