Replaying 1929: Business, Financial, and earth change news

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400 Point Question: "So, How did you do?"

So along comes a bummer of a Friday and you're planning for the long weekend when "Whap!" the market starts to slide and oil goes screaming skyward.  You click over to this site at 9:45 AM and read Robin Landry's prediction of a possible close down 350-points.  Today, we have to ask the sometimes difficult question: "How did you do?"

 

OK, the drop was the eighth worst in the history of the Dow - but I reckon we could do even worse next week, not that key support (by Landry's work, 12,269) has been broken.

 

I don't mind sharing my portfolio's performance.  I was down $39-bucks for the day, would have actually been a small gain, but coffee dropped a bit in the commodity market after being up earlier..  What the hell, right? 

 

My outlook on the markets for quite some time has been that a person would have to be a darned fool to be loaded up on paper assets which are little more than paper with ink - the same kind of stuff that I can crank out of my laser printer..  Of course, because I won't break counterfeiting, or any other laws that I'm aware of, I won't put "Good for all debts Public and Private" on it, although even that is disappearing with some stores now requiring credit cards in order to comply with anti-terrorism laws, but that's another discussion.

 

A long term chart of the S&P sure looks like a double top is in to some of our readers.

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Stand Up Economics:  I've developed a handy form to help you come to terms with the new economic reality.  Print this off and fill it in when your spouse isn't around.  You probably hate hearing "I told you so..." just as much as any of us.

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       THE URBANSURVIVAL.COM  FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE QUIZ

 

Time allowed:  2-minutes.

 

1.  Stock/Commodity portfolio net worth at close Thurs June 5:   _______________

 

2.  (minus) Portfolio net worth at close Fri. June 6:                      _______________

 

3.  NET DIFFERENCE   (Calculators OK)                   _____________________

 

Scoring:

If Line 2 is no more than  $100 less than line 1, you are smart, well positioned and should sleep well this weekend.  Give yourself an "A".  If the market continues tumbling toward the next support level at 10,986  you might lose $500.  But so what?  You've probably gambled and lost more than that in either Las Vegas or in a previous marriage.  Cut yourself some slack.  Have a Bloody Mary and steak and eggs Sunday.  Or, if you're vegan, a spinach & mushroom  quiche and champagne.  You earned it.

 

If Line 2 is more than $100 less than line 1, but less than $1,000 less, give yourself a "B".  Assign yourself some homework however.  Read back issues of Peoplenomics that cover the disintegration of paper assets to come and consider various alternatives to maintain at least a larger portion of your life's savings if the financial ship of state goes turtle.  At least you're trying:  For Sunday breakfast, bacon and eggs and a beer is all.  If you're vegan, a bowl of Total and a beer.

 

If line 2 is more than $1,000 less than line 1, but less than $10,000, give yourself a "C".  You are likely still not going to do well next week, but you're probably locked into a 'buy and hold mindset' and are oblivious to the fact that on an inflation adjusted basis, the Dow needs to be at 14,667.58 right now in order to have retained its purchasing power hit in  the Spring of 2000.  The fact that your retirement purchasing power of those hard-fought 2000 dollars has dropped more than 16.7% over the past  8 1/2 years doesn't seem to phase you because you are either really really rich, or verging on stupid.  In fact, I wonder about giving you a "C", but I'm in a generous mood.  For Sunday morning breakfast, two eggs, toast, and a glass of milk.  If you're vegan, a glass of juice and a fruit salad.

 

If line 2 is more than $10,000 less than line 1, but less than $50,000, you are either dumber than a stick or you're a hopelessly addict gambler.  In either case you get  a "D" for your financial performance.  It's way too late to brace for the possible next leg down Monday-Wednesday or next week, but please consider rehab or group therapy and get off whatever it is you're on.  You've been hoodwinks by the MainStream Media and are incapable of independent thought.  Consider appointing a smarter relative (hopefully one who scored a "B" or better on this quiz) as your legal guardian for all financial matters.  For Sunday morning breakfast, reward yourself with dry, toast (no butter) and a glass of water.  If you're vegan, just read the cereal box, eat half an apple.

 

If line 2 is more than $50,000(or more) less than line 1 give yourself an "E".  Hide all sharp instruments and have a relative come over and take all your guns and ammo away.  Do not look at any market reports until at least Thursday of next week.  For Sunday breakfast, don't eat anything.  Not only do you not deserve it, but the enormity of your foolishness may be starting to sink in and you won't really feel like eating for a week or two anyway.  If you're vegan, prepare for your new lifestyle by eating a phone book.

 

"Incomplete"  If you take more than 2-minutes to get your portfolio balances, you are not keeping your eye on the ball.  Give yourself an E minus.  Go hungry Sunday, Write a $100 check to the local food bank while you still can because you will likely need their help sooner than youi think.  If you're vegan, write the check and then eat the check register.

 

Click to submit your score:

 

I got an "A"  Can I be Treasury Secretary for Ron Paul?

 

I got a "B"  Can I be Vice President for Ron Paul?

 

I got a "C".  Can I be CEO of GM?

 

I got a "D"  Can I be CEO of Lehman?

 

I got an "E"  Can I be Treasury Secretary for Hillary Clinton?

RETESTING NEXT WEEK:  Save this test and take it again Tuesday after the close.  Use the Friday closing balance and the Tuesday closing balance for the retest.

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OK, so much for Mr. Ure's odd sense of humor.  Here, have a shot of Jack.

 

Trouble Ahead?  Bank on it!

An email from a reader got my attention:

Hi George, reading your site on daily basis; thanks for the common sense and the unfiltered info. Here's my question: recently I was in Europe and I tried opening an account in a European bank (in Paris to be exact), the manager looked straight into my eyes and said that they have a directive from high above not to open accounts for US citizens and actually they have asked every us citizen who has an account with them to leave the bank (banks name is ***), very disappointed I created a havoc about discrimination, human rights etc (with bankers? what was I thinking?), then I lectured my wife (she's French) about the freedoms in our country and rotten values in Europe; a week later I'm in LA in my bank (Bank of ******) where my friend is the manager and he told me that they've just asked all euro pen citizens to clear the bank; plain and simple, to take their money and get lost; what do you thing is going on? something is in works.

Yes.  It's warring currencies!  What have we been telling you?  $139 oil is just the start!  First we hy6perinflate and then we collapse.  Quite simple.  The monetarists mantra "Crack-up Boom" comes to mind, eh?  For recent pointers, instead of going to Europe, next time try Argentina or still,  Zimbabwe where the currency has become unusable.  You see, that's the beauty of digidollars.  Just slide the decimal point and keep on printing....

 

Six Dollar Gas

Speaking of warring currencies and such, and the pressures to launch a preemptive attack on Iran over oil (although it will be spun otherwise) you do know that Iran has it's commodity bourse open and all that remains its to turn on oil trading in Euros right?

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The run-up of oil prices this week about ensures $6 gas this summer.  here's why: 

 

A barrel of oil is 42 gallons.  That means the raw material cost to make gasoline or diesel is $3.33 a gallon.  Now, what do you reckon the cracking (distillation) costs are?  I would guess a dollar.  And transportation and Federal taxes?  Another buck, you think?  And then what about mark-up for the retailer?  50-cents, maybe?  Throw on a heap of state and local taxes and we're there!  Just has to come through the supply chain to you.

 

Look for war to show up about when gas goes over $6 dollars.  The pols & hacks will then blame Iran (or whoever) and the dumber of our countrymen will buy it.

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BTW, coming up on Sunday through Wednesday, look for some horrific kind of mass murder/emotionally grabby news event as a possibility.  Bob Hitt, www.astroecon.com, has this theory that when tensions are really building up which could trash the market, one way to defuse the emotions that would otherwise tear down the market is for the PTB to 'stage' an emotion-grabbing news event.  If it happens, remember to recognize it.  Might have 'occult' numerology associated with it too, like 5, 7, 11, 19, 33...that kind of thing.  Just watching, not predicting anything specific.

 

Paving Crew Layoffs?

The high price of petroleum product could cut down the amount of road work done this summer.  I have a few friends that put themselves through engineering school working paving crews because it used to pay pretty well...

 

Hungry for Truth?

Stan and Holly Deyo have a darn good site to visit - and an article they sniffed out of the Tri State Observer in Pennsylvania is worthy of note:  ""The U.S. Has No Remaining Grain Reserves" says the headline. 

 

Who told you to plant a garden this spring?

 

Golden Time

I don't need to remind you about gold being up $24 on Friday, do I?  Back over $900 and I figure headed for $1,500 shortly.  But, I'm in no hurry - no plans to sell.  What would I get, paper? LOL

 

"Them Winds": Chart Please?

No, I have no idea why the National Weather Service hadn't posted the updated Tornado Trend chart on Friday as I expected they would...  too much of a bummer, maybe?  Or, still counting?  We'll just keep clicking, then...

 

Around the Ranch:  Much To Do

...about everything!  A special strategic outlook edition of Peoplenomics is coming up for subscribers.  We'll try to get a bead on a best, middle, and worst case for the rest of the year. 

 

Tons of rancherly things in the mill today, but first a hot shower, a big farm-style breakfast, and oh, gosh, I'm hungry.  See you Monday?

 

Peoplenomics.com 

Multiplexing the Market

"Psst!  Buddy...got a hot tip for yah on a stock that's going to the moon...."  You probably get as many emailed 'tips' as I do - and some days it's dozens touting this stock or that.  This week, we take on the task of trying to assess the various methods of predicting the future both of markets in general and particular securities and commodities by combining multiple inputs.  On the way, some thoughts on graphically representing and weighting of the various (multiplexed) inputs, but first we begin by stepping back to understand the true purpose of market research.  This is really part one of two because next week, we'll explore whether financial remote viewing, as yet another non-traditional method to intuit future market direction might be another avenue of study....      More For Subscribers    

 

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Tell Your Friends

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"Live on $10,000" Updated

There's now a single-page website devoted to my little ebook "How to Live on $10,000 a year (or less) at www.liveontenthousand.com.  Yep - still possible.  I also took a bit of additional material that was pertinent from recent issues of Peoplenomics and included them.  The whole thing runs about 65 pages, but it gives you a vision of how to not only live on the aforementioned dollar amount, but also how to migrate up the economic foodchain if you make a little more than that and do some active savings...  Click here for the page with more details on it.

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Last week's report is here.    For back issues of this site, click here.  (Goes back to 1997!)

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I promised Elaine that I would unload some of my equipment, so if you're looking for ham gear, especially the older tube-type (EMP resistant) type, send me a note and I will send out the list of what I'm selling off when I get it together.    Click here to  Put Me On Ham Gear List

 

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Friday June 6, 2008

Urgent Update:  Landry "5-Minute Chart Breakdown!"

I just had a call from my stock broker friend Robin Landry with an urgent report. 

"George, the 5-minute chart is in breakdown mode if I am reading it right - means that the market may close down 350 or more today.  Let me explain the technical picture:

 

Based on the movement in the 5-minute chart, either today or early next week we are likely to go down and test the 12,269 Dow level.  now, if we get through that, the next major level of support comes around 10,986.  Look for the PPT to be in action late session today or early next week unless something big changes.

 

Then if we get through that, the 10,986 level, we could see all hell break loose and Bob Prechter could be right.  We could be looking at a retest within a week or two of the 7,400 levels which came in as the 2002 lows.